Growth forecasts for the Spanish ceramic tile industry

Feb 26, 2004

26/02/04 - After a tough 2003, the two-year period 2004-2005 is expected to see a decisive recovery for the Italian and Spanish tile industries with increases in both production and sales, particularly in foreign markets.

According to the Assopiastrelle - Prometeia survey, Spain will maintain higher growth rates than Italy, thus confirming its position as the foremost European producer and maintaining the highest level of total sales.

The survey, which outlines a likely scenario up to 2005 and has also published preliminary end-of-year figures for 2003, suggests that in 2003 the Spanish industry will have maintained, if not improved on, the levels of 2002: production up 2% (664 million sq.m), total sales up 1.2%, domestic market sales up 2.2% (328 million sq.m), and exports up 0.3% (357.7 million sq.m).

However, Spanish production is expected to grow more rapidly this year (at around 5%) to reach 731 million square metres in 2005. This is due to domestic demand which is expected to reach 332 million sq.m/year and a recovery in exports which should notch up 377.8 million sq.m in 2004 (+5.6%%) and 407.6 million sq.m in 2005 (+7.9%). Domestic demand for tiles should also increase, from 335 million sq.m in 2003 to 342 million sq.m in 2005. In 2005 Spanish production and sales may exceed Italy’s figures by more than 100 million square metres.

In the two-year period we will also see a steady reduction in the gap between Italian and Spanish exports. After being narrowed to 56 million sq.m in 2003, this gap may be less than about 30 million square metres in 2005. According to the survey, the Spanish ceramic industry will succeed in increasing its exports at an average annual rate of 6%, with growth in all geographical areas. The most substantial increases will be in Latin America, North America and Central and Eastern Europe.
Competition from emerging Asian countries will be felt most keenly in the Middle East, Africa and Asia (Hong Kong and Singapore are the countries where Spain has lost the most substantial market shares that it held in the 1990s), although the quantities sold are likewise expected to increase in these areas.

As announced by CWW when presenting the initial figures for the study in December, 2003 was a poor year for the Italian tile industry (see: A poor 2003 for Italian tiles): production down on 2002 by 1.8% to 594.6 million sq.m, sales down by 3.4% to 587.5 million sq.m and exports down by 5.5% to 413.6 million sq.m. The only positive note was a 1.9% increase in domestic sales over 2002 to reach 174 million sq.m.

In 2004, however, Italy is also expected to show substantial increases. In 2005, production should reach 622 million sq.m and total sales 615.1 million sq.m (an average increase of 2.3%), while domestic demand will return to 2001 levels with a total of 192 million sq.m (including 178 million sq.m of domestic product) due to strong performance of building activity (an average growth of 1.4%).
Exports will increase over the two-year period 2004-2005 at an average rate of 2.5%, returning to 2002 levels in 2005 (about 437 million sq.m). This increase will be driven by a recovery concentrated prevalently in European markets (including Germany) and above all in the US, where sales are expected to rise from 70 million sq.m in 2003 to 77.5 million sq.m in 2005.

The in-focus section contains several tables comparing the two industries for:

- Tile production and sales from 1999 to 2005
- Investments in building and domestic tile consumption
- Exports in 2001-2005 divided up by geographical areaeconomia_su.jpgAll tablesosservatorio Prometeia Assopiastrelle.pdfDownload the article in .pdf formatosservatorio_eng_pdf.pdf