Forecasts for the ceramic industry and market in Asia

According to forecast analyses by the MECS Research Center, tile consumption in Asia-Far East could rise to 10.8 billion sq.m in 2028 with an average annual growth of 1.8%. Production expected at 11.6 billion sq.m (CAGR +1.6%).

According to “Ceramic Tile Market Forecast Analysis. TREND 2024-2028”, the forecast report for the global ceramic tile market, published last November by the MECS-Acimac Research Centre,

the Far East is the geographical macro-area with the most positive economic growth prospects for the next few years. Between 2024 and 2028, the region’s overall GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.3%, while investment in residential and non-residential construction is expected to rise by 3% annually. In 2028, the Far East will continue to account for 70% of global construction investment.

However, the MECS forecast report predicts more moderate growth for the ceramic industry and market in this macro-area.

Tile production is projected to increase from 10.8 billion sqm in 2023 to 11.6 billion sqm in 2028 (average annual growth rate of +1.6%), while tile consumption is set to rise at an average annual rate of 1.8%, from 9.9 billion sqm in 2023 to 10.8 billion sqm in 2028.

By 2028, China and India – the world’s top two tile producer and consumer countries – will account for 54.5% of global tile production, producing 9.7 billion sqm out of an estimated global total of 17.8 billion sqm. However, their growth patterns will follow opposite trajectories.

In China, the real estate crisis may lead to a further decline in domestic tile consumption (5,656 million sqm in 2028, an average annual contraction of 1.6%), with production volumes also expected to fall (6,441 million sqm, an annual decline of 0.9%). As a result, China’s share of global tile production will drop to 36%.

In contrast, India will maintain its rapid and sustained growth trajectory and will be the country with the biggest increase in production volumes by 2028. Output is expected to grow by 813 million sqm compared to 2023, bringing total production to 3,263 million sqm, with an average annual growth rate of 5.9% and a global market share of 18%. Domestic tile consumption will rise even more rapidly (CAGR +7.8% from 2024 to 2028), reaching 2,478 million sqm in 2028 (an increase of 778 million sqm compared to 2023). The Indian ceramic market’s expansion will be driven by a robust national economic performance, with GDP projected to grow by 6.6% annually over the next five years, alongside steady investment in construction, expected to increase by 3.7% per year through 2028.

However, the ceramic industry in the Far East is not limited to these two giants. Vietnam and Indonesia, which will rank as the fourth- and seventh-largest ceramic tile producers worldwide by 2028, also merit attention.