World ceramic tile industry and market: forecasts to 2025

Ilaria Vesentini, MECS (Italy)

MECS has published its five-year forecast survey for the world ceramic tile market. According to the report Ceramic Tile Market Forecast Analysis - Trend 2021-2025, production will grow at an average annual rate of 5%.

Over the five-year period from 2021 to 2025, the world ceramic tile market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5% in terms of production (an additional 4.5 billion square metres by 2025) and 5.1% in terms of consumption, resulting in a very slight increase in inventory.

China will remain the undisputed leader accounting for half of global ceramic tile production and consumption, followed at a considerable distance by India with a projected output of more than 2 billion square metres in 2025 (almost half of which will be exported, making it the world’s largest exporter in terms of volume), then Iran and Russia which are on course to overtake Indonesia and Brazil.

These are a few of the trends revealed in the recently published MECS Study Centre report entitled "Ceramic Tile Market Forecast Analysis, TREND 2021-2025".

The report begins with a qualitative analysis of all the key factors used to predict trends over the next few years, including population and wealth, geopolitical tensions, energy price fluctuations and the effects of the ecological transition, the upswings and downturns of the construction sector and the impact of logistics. It then provides detailed analysis of macroregions and individual countries (91 of which are analysed in detail) based on absolute figures and five-year growth rates in ceramic tile production and consumption, as well as macroeconomic indicators that help gain an understanding of market trends.

The newly published report aims to provide industry entrepreneurs and managers with a useful tool for understanding the sector at a time of unprecedented uncertainty following two years of pandemic that have overturned economic models and expectations.

The MECS research centre draws on thirty years of experience in the ceramic tile sector and in particular on the wealth of information acquired over the last decade, which includes in-depth analyses and reports on the international market along with accurate and up-to-date figures on production, consumption, trade and the economic and financial performance of manufacturers worldwide. With its consolidated expertise, continuous direct contact with Italy’s world-leading ceramic and ceramic technology manufacturing districts and collaboration with the Cresme research centre, MECS offers unique insights into market trends.

Despite the unpredictable nature of short-term trends in the event of unexpected fluctuations in commodity and energy prices, as in the current situation, and the difficulty of assessing the effects of new government policies for fighting the pandemic, the analytical methodology and algorithms underpinning the forecasts make the medium- and long-term projections in the new MECS report robust and consistent.

Figures contained in the new Ceramic Tile Market Forecast Analysis, TREND 2021-2025 also show that, unlike during the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the Covid-19 pandemic has aided the recovery of advanced economies while penalising developing and emerging market economies. The pre-Covid growth surge observed in a number of Asian and African countries is expected to subside over the coming years due to difficulties in reacting to the production challenges and social disruption caused by the pandemic.

China will retain its leadership position in the global ceramic tile market with a production of 10 billion sqm, while Asia in general will increase its dominance in terms of production but not consumption. Africa remains the most dynamic macroregion (starting out from lower levels in absolute terms and with a considerable gap to make up), but the most surprising trend – already observed in the last edition of World Production and Consumption of Ceramic Tiles – is the sheer pace at which non-EU European countries are gaining ground among their competitors.

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